Friday, February 26, 2010

The Validity of Scientific Survey: The Case of SWS (PDF File)

Bakit kapag lumalamang sa survey ang mga kandidato, nakakataba daw ng puso. Pero kapag nangungulelat sila, hindi daw dapat pakinggan ang inilalabas ng mga survey poll organizations. May isang kandidato pa nga ang nagsabi na hindi kayang salaminin ng opinyon ng ilang libong interviewees lamang ang sentimyento ng 40 milyon na botanteng Filipino. Is this a valid statement? Of course not. Scientific survey does not need 40 million responses to arrive at valid results. SWS's predictions for the past national elections prove the validity of scientific surveys.

"Traditional politicians are often antagonistic to election surveys. They accuse it of having power to influence the vote, although the truth is that what they fear is the voter-power reflected in honest, scientific polling."

"SWS never contends that a survey of a sample of the votes can judge the accuracy of a full count of the votes. On the contrary, the reverse is true: it is the full count that judges the quality of a sample survey. In the Philippines, it is far better to judge official results by comparing them with the parallel counts of the non-governmental National Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) than with sample surveys."

"Whereas many political players are skeptical of opinion polls, the public in general is quite appreciative of them. Seven or eight out of every ten Filipinos call polls, and election surveys in particular, a good thing. I think citizens understand, at least intuitively, that opinion polls are their means of knowing their own collective opinion. Definitely, they enjoy the regular reports of how candidates are faring in election races."

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