Friday, February 26, 2010

The Validity of Scientific Survey: The Case of SWS (PDF File)

Bakit kapag lumalamang sa survey ang mga kandidato, nakakataba daw ng puso. Pero kapag nangungulelat sila, hindi daw dapat pakinggan ang inilalabas ng mga survey poll organizations. May isang kandidato pa nga ang nagsabi na hindi kayang salaminin ng opinyon ng ilang libong interviewees lamang ang sentimyento ng 40 milyon na botanteng Filipino. Is this a valid statement? Of course not. Scientific survey does not need 40 million responses to arrive at valid results. SWS's predictions for the past national elections prove the validity of scientific surveys.

-------
"Traditional politicians are often antagonistic to election surveys. They accuse it of having power to influence the vote, although the truth is that what they fear is the voter-power reflected in honest, scientific polling."

"SWS never contends that a survey of a sample of the votes can judge the accuracy of a full count of the votes. On the contrary, the reverse is true: it is the full count that judges the quality of a sample survey. In the Philippines, it is far better to judge official results by comparing them with the parallel counts of the non-governmental National Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) than with sample surveys."

"Whereas many political players are skeptical of opinion polls, the public in general is quite appreciative of them. Seven or eight out of every ten Filipinos call polls, and election surveys in particular, a good thing. I think citizens understand, at least intuitively, that opinion polls are their means of knowing their own collective opinion. Definitely, they enjoy the regular reports of how candidates are faring in election races."

PDF File Link: http://kuyaronald.multiply.com/journal/item/205/The_Validity_of_Scientific_Surveys_The_Case_of_SWS_PDF_File

Saturday, February 20, 2010

SHOCKING, SUPRISING AND SAD: Benny Hinn's Wife files for Divorce

ORANGE, Calif. (AP) — The wife of televangelist Benny Hinn has filed for divorce in Southern California.

Suzanne Hinn filed the papers in Orange County Superior Court on Feb. 1, citing irreconcilable differences, after more than 30 years of marriage. The papers note the two separated on Jan. 26 and that Hinn has been living in Dana Point, a wealthy coastal community in southern Orange County.

Hinn is one of the best known advocates of the prosperity gospel, which teaches that Christians who are right with God will be rewarded with wealth and health in this lifetime.

His TV broadcasts on the Trinity Broadcast Network, a Pentecostal broadcasting juggernaut, and other TV networks are seen by millions of people around the world nearly every day. He travels the globe in his ministry's plane, named Dove One, holding events he calls "Miracle Crusades" that include spiritual healings.

Hinn has never fully publicly disclosed how he spends the money he raises, but his vast ministry is believed to be a multimillion-dollar operation. There was no mention of finances in the court filing, which listed three recent Southern California addresses for the family.

Over the years, Hinn has been the target of intense criticism from fellow Christians and watchdog groups who call his teachings false and accuse him of raising money only to enrich himself.

He is one of six televangelists under investigation by Sen. Charles Grassley, the Iowa Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, over whether he complied with IRS rules for nonprofits. Hinn has said on his website that external auditors ensure his compliance with IRS regulations and that in 2008, 88% of the money he collected was spent on ministry.

Benny Hinn Ministries is based in Grapevine, Texas, and operates a church and television studio in Aliso Viejo in California's Orange County, according to its website.

Sorrell Trope, the attorney listed on Suzanne Hinn's court filing, did not immediately return a call for comment.

J. Lee Grady, contributing editor of Charisma, a news magazine on the Pentecostal community, said Hinn's divorce is the latest in a string of high-profile ministry divorces and moral failures among the Pentecostal leaders, beginning with Ted Haggard's fall from grace in 2006.

He said Hinn's followers will want an explanation because of the high profile the couple had.

"It will be devastating to the people who have supported Benny Hinn's evangelistic work around the world," Grady said.

"Obviously because their ministry has been very public (and) they will need to issue a statement to their supporters to explain how this happened," he said.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2010-02-18-benny-hinn-divorce_N.htm

LOVESTRUCK: Commitment and Stages of Intimacy

I have been conducting surveys and seminars on love, courtship and dating for the past 6 years. My encounters with students and teenagers further exposed me to the "flawed" nature of the current "US-style" dating system. Many of them have the penchant to conclude that they are “in-love”, when in fact, they are just victims of the intense, short-lived, irrational infatuation. When a relationship ends, they would approach me, saying that real love “hurts”.

It is indeed unfair to love a person who cannot reciprocate and appreciate the love you offer. This occurs because of the absence of REAL COMMITMENT. Simply put, commitment is about loyalty and dedication. It is an act of will to love the person forever despite his/her weaknesses. Without it, everything will be superficial, shallow, unstable and untenable. This is the reason we should study the character of the person before entering into a relationship with him/her.

Young lovers would like to enjoy only the romantic perks of a relationship without thinking of its long-term requirements. Christian apologist C.S. Lewis likened this to “chewing” a delicious food without the intention of “swallowing” it. Dating, for many, has become an end in itself. We must bear in mind that the end-goal of dating is to find a lifetime partner. Long-lasting relationships, however, are built by following God’s will in developing intimacy.

First Stage: SPIRITUAL INTIMACY (spirit). The couple must first achieve spiritual oneness. The 2 Corinthians 6:14 principle is non-negotiable. We must first establish an intimate relationship with God before becoming intimate with a person. God is a jealous God. This is the period that the persons involved will try to work through doubts to determine if the relationship is of God. Seek God’s will together through prayer, Bible studies, ministries and service opportunities.Spiritual oneness is developed by doing spiritual activities together. It must be nurtured from the courtship stage up to marriage.

Second Stage: EMOTIONAL INTIMACY (soul). If the partners already show signs of serious and stable relationship with God, sharing of emotional feelings between each other is necessary. The need for a heart-to-heart communication is essential in strengthening the foundations of marriage. Intimacy needs like acceptance, affection, empathy, encourage, respect and support should be provided and nurtured by the persons involved. This, however, should only commence during the engagement stage (if the couple already signified a commitment to prepare for marriage).

Third Stage: PHYSICAL INTIMACY (body). Emotional oneness should never rationalize sexual activity. You know that you have crossed the threshold of sin, if your physical involvement already produces arousal. It must not be started (Song of Songs 2:7) before marriage. God's will is for us to remain chaste and physically undefiled while enjoying our singlehood.

Studies show that, in marriage, women give primacy to affection as their greatest need while men often desire for sexual fulfilment. Similarly, single men tend to start with and focus on physical intimacy while single women often find themselves prioritizing emotional attachment. This trend validates the statement, "women give sex to get love while men give love to get sex." Sadly, the couple seldom entertain the idea of spiritual compatibility.

ANO BA TALAGA ANG "CALLING" KO?

Lagi kong naririnig iyan sa mga kabataang kaga-graduate lang sa kolehiyo at mga young professionals na nababagot sa buhay. Nagtatanong si...